Simple voting data contradicts Donald Trump’s insane claim that Democrats selectively manipulated votes in key states and turned a huge (“huge”) loss into a false victory.
US election analysts rarely use the “Butler Swing”. Maybe he’s too British? However, looking at the 2020 US election, Butler’s swing reveals interesting voting patterns. And exposes Trump’s wild hypothesis. Consider these two simple data arrays.
First, let’s look at Trump’s claim that the Democrats have focused on the Swing States to generate a huge number of bogus votes. The data shows that this is not true.
The biggest swings in voting against Trump were not in the Swing states, but in the traditionally republican states. In fact, the swing against Trump at -2% in the Republican States is almost double the swing against Trump of -1.1% in the Swing States. And perhaps even more revealing, the states where Democrats would hypothetically have been more able to manipulate votes would have been traditionally democratic states where they have better control of the levers of power. Instead, Democratic states had the least swing, only -0.2% against Trump.
Second, Butler’s ‘uniform swing’ theory also tends to disprove Trump’s view that bogus votes in some states have led to a sharp rise in Democratic votes and that is why Democrats have cheated and won those key states (these are the states where Trump’s legal team went to court to overturn the voters’ decision).
In fact, the opposite is true: this 2020 election saw a ‘remarkably uniform swing’ across the states of America – there are no ‘bumps’ or manipulated anomalies in state voting data.
The overall swing against Trump since 2016 has been negative by 0.9% – and in a sure sign of even swing, as many 45 of the 51 states have had a negative swing against Trump. Only 6 states had small swings in Trump’s favor.
Voting patterns in the Swing states were by no means anomalies – on the contrary, only one Swing state stood out against the national uniform swing against Trump (Florida had a small 1% swing towards Trump) – all other swing states followed the uniform all-American model with swings far from Trump.
Note: What is a Voting Swing: A swing is simply the change in a party’s percentage of votes from one election to another. If there are only two sides, the positive swing to one side will, by definition, equal the negative swing to the other side. The Butler Swing in a two-party system is half the change in the margin of victory. For example, a swing of -2% means that a party’s vote fell by 2% from one election to the next. Butler’s theory of “uniform swing” says that if there is a swing away from a party, there will tend to be a negative swing in all / most regions of the country.